Leveraging Geographically Distributed Data for Influenza and SARS-CoV-2 Non-Parametric Forecasting

The evolution of some epidemics, such as influenza, demonstrates common patterns both in different regions and from year to year. On the contrary, epidemics such as the novel COVID-19 show quite heterogeneous dynamics and are extremely susceptible to the measures taken to mitigate their spread. In this paper, we propose empirical dynamic modeling to predict the evolution of influenza in Spain's regions. It is a non-parametric method that looks into the past for coincidences with the present to make the forecasts. Here, we extend the method to predict the evolution of other epidemics at any other starting territory and we also test this procedure with Spanish COVID-19 data. We finally build influenza and COVID-19 networks to check possible coincidences in the geographical distribution of both diseases. With this, we grasp the uniqueness of the geographical dynamics of COVID-19.

Fractional-Order Logistic Differential Equation with Mittag–Leffler-Type Kernel

In this paper, we consider the Prabhakar fractional logistic differential equation. By using appropriate limit relations, we recover some other logistic differential equations, giving representations of each solution in terms of a formal power series. Some numerical approximations are implemented by using truncated series.